Mozambique Food Security Outlook, June 2022 to January 2023 – Mozambique
The crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected to persist through early 2023, with needs expected to remain high
Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes prevail across Mozambique for most poor households supported by recently harvested crops from the 2021/22 agricultural season. However, in drought-affected areas of southern and central Mozambique, a poor harvest, depleted food reserves and limited income-generating opportunities are likely to result in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis ( IPC Phase 3). In Nampula Province, areas affected by storms/cyclones earlier in the year are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to loss of crops and livelihoods. In Cabo Delgado, acute food insecurity outcomes of Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) persist, due to the ongoing conflict. Stress ! (IPC Phase 2!) will prevail in areas where humanitarian food aid is regularly distributed.
In May, Food Security Cluster (FSC) partners provided humanitarian food assistance to approximately 374,000 beneficiaries in Cabo Delgado and Niassa, following distribution to approximately 650,000 beneficiaries in April, assisting approximately 1,025,000 people over the two month. Due to limited resources, WFP is distributing half rations equivalent to 39 percent of a 2,100 kcal diet to approximately 850,000 people in Cabo Delgado and 74,000 in Nampula and Niassa, with the rest of the beneficiaries supported by d other members of the FSC cluster. About 26 percent of the HFA was provided as in-kind assistance, 67 percent through vouchers and 7 percent through immediate response rations (IRRs). WFP warns there is a potential pipeline rupture in October if additional funding is not secured soon. Targeted humanitarian assistance is also underway in Zambezia and Nampula provinces, in areas affected by Cyclone Gombe, with WFP assisting around 97,000 people in May.
In May, year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation reached 9.3%, its highest level since September 2017. The main contributors to the monthly inflation rate were food and non-alcoholic beverages (3.4% month-on-month). ) and transportation (1.1% month-on-month). According to Mozambique’s National Institute of Statistics (INE), price increases for wheat, gasoline, diesel, cooking oil and bar soap are contributing the most to the monthly inflation rate.
Following the rise in fuel prices, bread prices increased by 20% and transport prices increased by 50% along some routes. Rising costs are likely to reduce household purchasing power, especially in urban areas where households are more market-dependent.
Delayed harvests continue across Mozambique, particularly in high production areas such as the Tete plateaus,
Zambézia, Manica and Sofala, the interior of Nampula and the west of Cabo Delgado and the province of Niassa. Although official production estimates are not yet available, near-average national production is likely after a rapid food security assessment in mid-May 2022, as well as ongoing investments in agricultural production such as the government program SUSTENTA. In addition, remote sensing products, such as the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), indicate that as of May 30, agricultural production is expected to be average to good, except in areas affected by bad weather shocks ( low rainfall, storms/cyclone, floods) and conflict.